Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 82346.941918 86937.050901 91526.791740 96457.256263 101600.552177 106804.326482 112463.930597
2025-02-16 74075.085104 81051.580259 88225.267612 96142.834577 104626.004230 113432.130850 123254.186082
2025-02-23 68678.359444 77296.273490 86354.064298 96562.925124 107727.500552 119544.842225 132977.175957
2025-03-02 64311.080447 74125.681788 84632.887916 96683.905625 110087.810097 124503.063560 141141.789440
2025-03-09 61522.670497 72387.051618 84203.879691 97960.550789 113482.484265 130400.749278 150180.802303
2025-03-16 58180.120300 69777.237852 82577.476284 97684.764011 114955.312097 134009.887434 156547.212136
2025-03-23 56316.234717 68702.280698 82552.324775 99097.398150 118229.851055 139563.559460 165051.242850
2025-03-30 54371.290291 67404.993388 82158.779144 99983.918382 120817.890815 144277.998048 172566.764995
2025-04-06 52206.055735 65732.007725 81224.215171 100144.956008 122485.182170 147876.193895 178761.584141
2025-04-13 50117.117599 64048.337079 80185.468328 100097.858638 123836.355467 151054.143198 184434.199695
2025-04-20 49015.431499 63490.420311 80428.785841 101524.146336 126890.390345 156202.517510 192413.666484
2025-04-27 47969.677321 62944.708278 80639.579840 102872.266391 129825.428659 161202.127215 200230.483663
2025-05-04 46585.074343 61948.161250 80284.079062 103531.044805 131949.555376 165281.078166 207029.750892
2025-05-11 44952.387737 60584.943309 79430.879813 103541.061631 133260.323394 168377.762033 212666.316736
2025-05-18 43674.784915 59618.272422 79022.839389 104059.874426 135163.033032 172172.555109 219147.213311
2025-05-25 42297.158109 58472.702983 78345.985455 104203.776406 136573.243530 175352.858203 224882.693487
2025-06-01 41572.246114 58134.599080 78657.480995 105563.399771 139477.455627 180356.421444 232859.935255
2025-06-08 40134.936748 56822.379645 77690.420985 105271.096175 140291.307394 182778.166684 237670.352406
2025-06-15 39576.235120 56638.535652 78146.010934 106771.924932 143350.175147 187975.831195 245924.915981
2025-06-22 38805.234237 56144.967743 78178.925770 107713.607905 145693.846570 192289.891020 253105.517675
2025-06-29 37744.515798 55230.012535 77634.474367 107884.656641 147039.143821 195351.014347 258732.893210
2025-07-06 36642.567093 54225.294783 76941.538694 107834.635057 148079.836004 198018.264263 263868.350810
2025-07-13 36231.464686 54143.952383 77452.670032 109349.403420 151133.180857 203232.250142 272231.462639